Novo Nordisk released its report for the first quarter of 2026. As a share holder in the company, I have a clear strategy: I plan to increase my holding in the future, but right now I am waiting for more bargains. If the price falls, I see it as an opportunity to buy more at a discount (dollar cost averaging). If it rises, yes, then the value of my existing holding increases. For me, this is a win-win situation and that is where you always want to be.
The market had significantly lowered expectations ahead of the report. Analysts estimated an adjusted operating profit of around DKK 28.7 billion. When the figures landed, we see an adjusted operating profit of DKK 32.8 billion – a clear positive surprise. Sales also came in stronger than expected; adjusted sales landed at DKK 70 billion against the expected DKK 69 billion. The report shows that the core business is very robust after all.
It has been a challenging journey for the share, to say the least. In Q1 2025, Novo Nordisk was trading around DKK 530, but we have seen the price fall all the way down to DKK 280–290. Mathematically, based on the profit trend, the valuation should be higher – around DKK 396. However, the market has chosen to punish the share by pricing in higher risk and lower future growth expectations.
The question is whether the report can be the catalyst that turns the trend around. In addition to the figures, we see that the company is continuing its share buyback program with vigor; almost DKK 3.8 billion has been invested in its own shares during the spring. This is a clear indication of the management’s confidence in the company’s long-term value creation.
When I look at the development of the society – with a population that is becoming increasingly sedentary and a fast food based diet has become everyday food for many – I unfortunately see a growing need for the solutions that Novo Nordisk provides. It is a gloomy social development, but for a company like Novo Nordisk it means a structural tailwind that will continue for many years to come.
For me, this is not just a short-term investment, but part of a long-term strategy where I am convinced of the company’s ability to perform, regardless of what the stock market’s short-term trends are, so keep investing…
I believe in ‘time in the market beats timing the market’.
Busy And Useful 