2025 is coming to an end and 2026 is around the corner. I will come with new posts on 2025 wrap-up/reflections and also on 2026 by end of December. But today I saw an article from JPMorgan, had some reflections into 2026 already, so the article…
The miners are happy on Wall Street right now, but that can change quickly. According to JP Morgan, 2026 contains several defining moments for how the year will unfold.
The New York Stock Exchange looks set to end 2025 with a double-digit rise. The tone for next year is also generally positive. But there are clouds of concern.
JP Morgan is warning that three political and geopolitical risks could create significant instability in 2026.
- Decisions by the court may have an impact
The first concerns the US Supreme Court, which will next year review whether the White House’s extensive tariff policy is based on a sustainable legal basis. The outcome could have direct consequences for government finances. The annual tariff revenue of several hundred billion dollars has become part of the basic forecasts for the country’s economy, and an unfavorable decision could worsen the already large budget deficit.
The uncertainty surrounding the decision also risks creating fluctuations in sectors dependent on international trade.
2. China has taken a tougher stance
The second risk area concerns relations between the United States and China. Despite a period of more controlled and strategically balanced contacts, tensions remain.
Both countries are seeking advantages by exploiting areas where they have a structural advantage, without crossing the line into open conflict.
China’s ability to use control over critical materials and components has become a tool reminiscent of the world’s dependencies in several advanced industrial chains.
A shift in this balance could quickly affect both markets and supply chains.
3. The elections could affect
The third risk is linked to the US mid-term elections.
Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, but opinion polls point to a possible loss of the House of Representatives. Such a scenario is expected to lead to increased political conflicts and more budget deadlocks, something the market has historically reacted negatively to.
The Outlook
There is an optimistic view of the American economy. Expectations of continued high capital investments, strong demand linked to AI development and regulatory easing contribute to hopes of a good first half of the year for the stock market.
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