Novo Nordisk is in downward spiral in 2025. When I entered early this year, it looked like the company was on the right track, but the happiness was short-lived.

Since then, Novo has lowered its growth guidance for their GLP-1 drug. Remarkably, this is the fourth time this year alone they have lowered guidance. I have never experienced this before.

GLP-1 is then their obesity drug Wegovy, where they have lost significantly to competitor Eli Lilly, whose equivalent is called Zepbound.

This week’s price drop, however, does not concern the GLP-1 area. The hot topic has been that Novo Nordisk’s diabetes tablet (Rybelsus) would work as a drug for Alzheimer’s.

Unfortunately, we learned this week that this was not the case. This was another setback for an already depressed stock, and the price fell 10% on the news (gained some ground by today).

The market is interesting as usual. First you send the stock down to 273 DDK and then you choose to set the price tag at 300 DDK a couple of days later… Temporary anxiety should sometimes not be underestimated.

It is both strange and understandable that Novo continues to decline. Returning to GLP-1 (obesity), some analysts predict that the market could grow at the same rate as AI. According to them, there is enormous potential. If Novo continues to show that it is not keeping up with this, then it will suffer. It is not more difficult than that.

Novo Nordisk started selling Ozempic in 2017. The stock has doubled since then, but it’s still interesting how much weight the market places on the company’s GLP-1 area. The vast majority of their revenue today comes from diabetes drugs.

I want to mention the valuation and the dividend

What is interesting is the valuation differences between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. On a rolling 12-month (TTM) basis, Eli Lilly is valued at a P/E of 52 while Novo Nordisk is valued at a P/E of 11.

Share	P/E (TTM)
Eli Lilly	52
Novo Nordisk	11

However, the valuation difference is not remarkable. Eli Lilly’s earnings/share are expected to grow by almost 24% annually, while Novo Nordisk is expected to increase earnings by 7.2% annually. That’s a bit of a difference.

Share	Profit growth, annually
Eli Lilly	24
Novo Nordisk	7.2

Over the last 10 years, Novo has been valued at around P/E 27, and that says something about how much the market now distrusts the company.

I have bought more anyway during this week. The dividend yield is around 4% and the dividend is very secure. In the next 10 years, I think the company will make very good progress even though the GLP-1 segment has now fallen behind.