Holmen Quaterly Update

 If you want to own something in forestry,  you have to realize that the bag of options is not very large. Especially not if you limit yourself to Sweden and certainly not if you want to own something that fits into a dividend portfolio.

Billerud sold its forest assets in 2019, so only SCA, Holmen and Stora Enso are actually left. Furthermore, Stora Enso is classified as a Finnish company with headquarters in Helsinki and a Finnish ISIN number.

Holmen is the most interesting thing I’ve found. Even though the last few years have been losing years, the stock has still beaten OMSX30GI over the last 10 years if we also include reinvested dividends. By quite a bit, too.

Within the forest sector, I think Holmen is a relatively defensive choice with lower exposure to pulp prices and a strong balance sheet,

The stock got a huge boost when the last report arrived. Both net sales and operating profit exceeded analysts’ expectations. The increase that day alone was +7%, but now a quarter later the stock is down to the same level as before that report.

The tariffs have clearly shaken the sector and if we look at the sector in general we have the same sad development.

As an investor, you can consider whether it is even worth owning anything at all in the forestry sector. It is not a must and to be honest.

It wasn’t exactly a stellar report, and much worse than last quarter’s reading.

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Operating profit was approximately SEK 100 million less than expected. Sales came in at SEK 5,573 million, compared to the 6,033 million expected by analysts.

The stock has been performing quite poorly since the last report, but I think it will still dip quite significantly.

It’s a bit interesting, because they continue to point out a weak construction market as the culprit in the drama. At the same time, they choose to say that supply is limited by a global raw material shortage.

Regarding cardboard, which the company also supplies, it was neither up nor down from last quarter. However, demand in Europe is described as being much lower since the pandemic, which is of course understandable since everyone would be ordering online then.

I do like Holmen as a defensive stock, and will continue owning it for now.

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