Novo Nordisk deep stock analysis, should you buy during the crash?
What is Novo Nordisk? It is a global pharmaceutical company, founded in 1923 and headquartered just outside Copenhagen in Denmark. The company defeats serious chronic diseases such as diabetes, hemophilia, growth disorders, obesity and atherosclerosis. Novo Nordisk has more than 64,000 employees in 80 offices around the world and products are available in 170 countries.
Sales and profits have risen by over 20% on average over the past 5 years. Novo Nordisk buys back its own shares every year and also pays out 50% of its profits as dividends.
CEO recently said that the company is at the beginning of real growth. Novo had too much demand and does not have time to deliver what they want to deliver. Novo has expanded its production in the US to meet the increasing demand. There were many discussions about the competitor Eli Lilly in the US, price bundling and slightly lower sales growth in 2025, but then most analysts came to the conclusion that the share is still worth a buy stamp, at about 600 Danish kronor (dkk). The share has plummeted from 1000 dkk at most to 500 dkk even though the company is doing well and will continue to do so in near future.
The analysts are little worried about 2026 and beyond, but 2025 will still be a really good year. If the share price is 500 dkk, it gives a PE of 19.2 (historical PE is closer to 30). The company is valued low and I have considered buying now that I have read more about the company I think that PE 22 is reasonable to pay and it gives a reasonable share price of 572 dkk. I also want to buy at a discount of at least 10% and then it is a good time to start buying in at 515 dkk. Below 460 dkk I buy more. So that is this year’s valuation. If we look at next year, you can pay 594 dkk, which is why I believe the share will rise by 20% in the next 12 months (assuming profits continue to rise) and you will receive a dividend of 1.5% now at the end of the month. I want to be part of that.
If profits shrink, the share will also continue to fall. Many have burned themselves and are seeing losses in their portfolios because they bought too early in the decline. This is a common mistake for both beginners and professionals. Even traders. It is easier to value a company when you don’t own it, then you think logically and cautiously, when you already own it and bought too expensively, you try to defend your purchases and calculate too positively and then you are part of the decline. A reasonable share price changes after every news. If Novo was worth 800 dkk a few quarters ago, well, maybe, but now that has changed and it is no longer worth it. You should calculate your shares every year and do the new analysis.
Always do your own analysis and see the post as inspiration, not as recommendation.
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