The reporting season is in full swing, but we still have to wait a while before all the major banks report their figures. The interest rate party has been a reality for the big banks and expectations for higher dividends are high. How good does it really look now in front of the reports? What can you as an investor expect from the banks’ dividends in 2024? Will there be a distribution party?
Bank dividend 2024
Swedbank
Dividend last year: SEK 8
Dividend this year (forecast): SEK 15.9
Direct return: 7.7%
P/B : 1.2
SEB
Dividend last year: SEK 6.8
Dividend this year (forecast): SEK 9.8
Direct return: 6.9%
P/B : 1.3
Nordea
Dividend last year: SEK 9
Dividend this year (forecast): SEK 10.8
Direct return: 8.4%
P/B : 1.3
Handelsbanken
Dividend last year: SEK 8
Dividend this year (forecast): SEK 8.9
Direct return: 8.1%
P/B : 1.0
The data in the boxes above is taken from Factset and is the analysts’ prediction of the dividend that the banks’ boards will soon present. In general, it looks like there will be good dividend increases and nice dividend yields for investors.
Banks have done very well in the past year and all except Handelsbanken have beaten the index (OMXSGI). Including dividends, Handelsbanken has performed basically the same as the index.
Nordea aims to distribute 60-70% of the profit, while SEB and Swedbank distribute approximately 50%. Handelsbanken, on the other hand, has no definite goal of how much to distribute.
Personally, I only own Handelsbanken and there I would like to see some type of buyback program kick in. That, together with the quarterly dividend, I think would have benefited the bank enormously. SEB and Nordea are the ones that bought back shares last year, but buybacks must be done continuously, in bad times as well as good.
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